By Divya Kumar Soti
Baloch Leadership should make the struggle compatible with strategic aims of the International Community
Taking into account the present political and strategic circumstances as well as future likelihoods, Baloch nationalism will have to develop and re-orient itself according to changed times, in a way, so as to factor in the long term strategic calculations of West and not just tactical ones. Baloch nationalism has in it, lot of potential of being developed as a modal antithesis to radical Islam that is fast engulfing the region. Secular nationalisms are best antidotes for epidemic called Taliban which after spinning out of control of political establishment in Islamabad is making ingress into Punjab and is trying to spread its influence in Balochistan. Baloch leaders should advertise the Baloch freedom struggle as an instrumentality for nurturing temperate and modern Islam in the region. Baloch leaders should now sincerely contemplate the establishment of ‘Modern state of Balochistan’ as their primary aim instead of fighting primarily for Tribal interests and indulging in rhetoric about free Balochistan as a time pass.
Although, question of Balochistan gaining independence or autonomy is secondary at this point of time and will depend upon a large number of uncontrollable factors which lie in womb of future, the preponderance of probability favors the former given certain atmospheric conditions are maintained and catalysts remain in supply. These conditions consist of redesigning Baloch struggle, keeping alive the new student movement and importing good quality tradecraft for armed struggle. These matters will be dealt with in a detailed manner in the later part of this paper.
In view of current situation there is a likelihood of Pakistan going ‘Split Wide Open’. Even if that does not happen it is certain that writ of Islamabad will progressively deteriorate in Balochistan as well as in North West Frontier Province. In that case, Balochs can realistically expect to secure a high level of autonomy in short term.
However, due to stakes of a large number of players (both national as well as non-national), which render the equations quite multifarious, these aims cannot be achieved without support of international community. Baloch leadership should try to convince the international community about the importance of rise of a moderate Islamic State of Balochistan in repelling the challenge posed by advent of radical Islam and dangerous implications of complete talibanization of all tribes in Gedrosia. Such a State of Balochistan will play the role of a buffer cum filter between Pakistan and region beyond Bolan Pass and will be highly useful in management of radical elements on both sides of Durand Line. The process is very similar to that of attracting Venture Capitalists and the Obama administration is likely to be receptive of such thoughts given Obama’s own innovative thinking about the region.
Successive regimes in Islamabad for last three decades are using jehadi elements to undermine Baloch struggle. ISI has been constantly using Taliban against Baloch nationalists. Strategy of Islamabad is to encourage the talibanisation of Balochistan, which by its very effect will harm Baloch freedom struggle and will also provide an alternative haven for its radical assets. Baloch leaders must try to make West understand the dangerous implications of all this. West must be made to understand the Strategic utility of Balochistan in war on terror.
Options for India
India has little option but to helplessly watch the talbanization of Pakistan which now seems to be quite an irreversible phenomenon if Islamabad’s inconsistent policies towards Taliban and Pak Army’s double and triple dealings are to continue. But India along with international community should start to garner elements within Pakistan’s civil society and various aspirants of nationhood who do not entertain jehadi thought and in event of a major fiasco may try to counter-balance the radical elements.
Keeping this in view, India should support and encourage the Baloch leadership in seeking West’s support. India should employ its track two diplomatic channels in carrying this forward. This will work as a strong rebuttal of Ahmed Rashid Theory inasmuch as it shows how Islamabad is using Islamic fundamentalism, on one hand to secure secession of Kashmir from secular State of India and at the same time, to suppress legitimate secular struggle of Balochs and emphasizes on implicit dangers of letting Islamabad continue with such policies.
As it is becoming increasingly clear that in fighting Taliban, dependence on Islamabad is going to be non-productive, it will be prudent for Americans to establish direct relations with Tribal leaders and for that Balochistan is a good place to start with. Kabul should also be roped in to make Americans understand tactical benefits of befriending Baloch and Brohi tribes. This will increase the flow of actionable intelligence from Taliban and Qaeda safe havens and will decrease dependence upon ISI and Afghan sources, thus diversifying the collection threads. The opening of Baloch option will help in keeping a check on Pak military-intelligence establishment and will deter it from playing mind games with international community.
Need to recast the Baloch Struggle
To be strategically as well as tactically relevant for sponsors and to be a successful venture, Baloch leadership needs to draw some lessons from past mistakes. Although, History does not acknowledge the word ‘mistake’, it refers to them as ‘blunders’. To understand why Baloch uprisings always failed to achieve what they aimed, a critical analysis of them is warranted at this point. Some of the conclusions are as under:-
Baloch uprisings always got centered on one or two personalities and whenever any of them was eliminated or enticed away by Pak army, the mobilization melted away like butter in the heat. Be it Prince Abdul Karims Khan’s struggle or 1958 Baloch uprising and subsequent execution of Nawab Navroz Khan or Nawab Bugti’s tilt towards Islamabad in 70’s and recent martyrdom of Nawab in 2005.
Baloch leadership at most of the occasions failed to build around martyrdoms and lost the chances of deriving the spark required to convert feudal dissatisfaction into a wider national movement.
Baloch insurgencies were very badly managed and poorly advertised. There was a complete lack of professionalism and unnecessary interruptions in forms of ceasefires, talks and talk for talks. These were nothing else but political camouflages for bargaining for benefit and advancement of personal and feudal interests.
Tradecraft employed in waging these insurgencies was at times silly and unprofessional. Mass movement and armed struggle were never separated from each other. This caught mass leaders between the crossfire unable to carry on with mass movement. And there were low grade sabotage activities that were many a times led by mass leaders from the front and dramatic surrenders. These things proved disastrous for higher direction of struggle.
Baloch leadership failed to demonstrate the ability to counter political finesse of regimes in Islamabad and terminated the building momentums for the carrots that were just in the process of being dangled. Recent example is unilateral ceasefire by BLA and BRA in reciprocation to (as there is no other visible reason) Islamabad’s move of removing names of some Baloch leaders from Exit Control List and promises of new passports for some tribal leaders.
The Way Ahead
Baloch leadership should incorporate and nurture following crucial features into their struggle-
The practice of mobilizing upsurges around some personalities should be done away with and attempts must be made to ready second and third lines of leadership. Movement must be mass based not leader based or tribe based.
The Baloch leaders should try to build the movement around something more fundamental than Gas Royalties of tribal chiefs. Baloch nationalism is not just about criminal misappropriation of Baloch natural resources by Islamabad; it is just one reason of dissatisfaction. The roots of Baloch nationalism lie deep in greater historical and cultural causes.
Inter-tribal egos and rivalries must be given up not just at public forums but at the ground. Pak army has been using this as a tool to crush and malign the image of Baloch people. Musharraf was able to misrepresent to the whole World that the killing of Nawab Bugti, was a result of inter-tribal rivalry only because of world famous differences among Baloch Tribal leaders. Fortunately there are signs that new generation understands this and proof of that is the BLA message distributed in a freedom rally in Quetta on Nov 2 this year. This message represents the new renaissance phase Baloch thinking is going through. A paragraph of it reads as under:
“We must get rid of egoism, selfishness, tribal and regional differences, where the concept of nation should not be affiliated with tribe. But, here it is very astonishing to see that everyone takes its tribe as a nation. Like Raisani National Alliance, Shahwani National Alliance, Sarpara National Alliance, Kumbarani National Alliance etc. If a tribe is a nation then what is the application of Baloch nation in your mind?”
It goes on further and hits at major drawbacks: “If we want to be free from the occupying country of Pakistan then from today onwards we must solidify the concept of nationhood in the minds of Baloch people. With the departing from Pakistani occupation we must also farewell selfishness, tribalism and personality cults, which are a cancer for national survivor.”
Writing is clear on the wall for the old guard. And if Baloch leaders failed to read this, history will fail them. Baloch leaders must try to reinvent inter-tribal relationships and all tribes be them Baloch or Brohi must work in complete convergence.
Baloch people must conserve the new student movement that is building up. The new generation is likely to clean the Baloch struggle of orthodox practices and will rescue it from hijackings by few people for their personal interests. Baloch student movement will prove to be a panacea for all ailments Baloch struggle suffers from, if guided properly. The injection of new blood and thinking will bring new tradecraft and professionalism. This student movement is free from draconian reservations and is a major platform to unite the Baloch society for greater causes.
At the same time Baloch leadership should do all that is required to defecate and to expurgate the broader struggle. It should be remembered that nations just do not emerge out of struggles; they emerge out of movements capable of causing intellectual upheaval on a mass scale thereby leading a society to maturity which ultimately culminates into a nation.
http://intellibriefs.blogspot.com/2009/03/baloch-nationalism-as-forestaller-for.html
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