Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz have been in the news, but here's a story you haven't heard. It occurred in the Caspian Sea on Jan. 4 after an Iranian patrol boat opened fire on an allegedly illegal fishing expedition. A 20-year-old fisherman, Hissmauddin Khadivar, was killed and around 30 of his comrades arrested, all from the port of Bandar in Golestan province.
Golestan lies along Iran's northern border, alongside the neighboring country of Turkmenistan. Its popu-lation is predominantly Turkmen, a separate ethnic group within Iran. Turkmen usually have a decidedly Asiatic appearance and are mostly Sunni Muslims. About 2 million line in Iran and there have been at least two serious Turkmen uprisings against Tehran's rule, in the 1920s and in the 1980s. Both were quickly quashed.
Young Khadivar's death sparked a mini-revolt in Golestan, according to Amir Taheri, an Iranian exile who writes about his homeland. Angry Turkmen set vehicles on fire and attacked government offices, including a police station. Sporadic violence lasted for two days but even after it was tamped down demonstrations reportedly spread to other Turkomen-majority areas, including an adjacent province. All this highlights the fact that non-Persian minorities in Iran have significant grievances that could come into play in the future. There are several other important minority populations in Iran:
Azeris (18 million)
About one in four Iranians are Azeris, living mostly in the northwest near Azerbaijan. Like the majority Persians, Azeris are predominantly Shiite Muslims, but speak a Turkic dialect. Azeri grievances center on preserving their language and culture. In 2006, large-scale riots erupted in Azeri areas due to a state-published cartoon depicting Azeris as cockroaches.
Kurds (4 million)
Mainly Sunni, the Kurds also live mostly in the northwest. As in Turkey, Iraq and Syria, many Kurdish Iranians advocate separatism, which engenders much tension with the central government. There are periodic, but frequent clashes between Kurds and Iranian security services, some deadly.
Arabs (3 million)
In the southwest, particularly Khuzestan province, Shiite Arabs press for greater autonomy and rights. Despite living amidst Iran's largest oil fields, many Arabs in Khuzestan (also called Ahwazis) live in poverty, fostering much resentment of Tehran. In 2006 clashes between police and pro-independence Arabs resulted in deaths. Tehran also claims British and U.S. covert action has contributed to unrest there.
Baluchis (2 million)
Another separatist-minded group, the Baluchis reside along the porous border with Pakistan. In this remote region, smuggling is an art form and government forces face a low-grade insurgency consisting of drug runners and militants. Last year, in Sistan-Baluchestan province, militants from the "Jundallah" group killed 18 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members.
The point is, Iran is not as monolithic as it appears. And just as internal tensions contributed greatly to the dissolution of the USSR, the Islamic Republic of Iran may also be subject to unraveling at the edges. But, should the United States exploit this? And if so, how? More on this next week.
Tad True blood has more than 20 years of experience in the military. He residents in Santa Clara.
http://www.thespectrum.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080117/OPINION/801170345
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