Munir Ahmed Baluch
Deception and treachery, the ultimate zero sum game, repetition of a bloody history’ call it what you may, what is happening in Balochistan defies comprehension on any conventional scale. What is happening in Balochistan, especially since 2002? Every story must start somewhere. This story should conveniently have started on the night of January 7, 2005, when rockets were fired on gas installations at Sui and much of Pakistan came to a grinding halt for about a week. Or, we should take the night of January 2, 2005, as the starting point when an unfortunate female doctor was reportedly gang-raped in Sui. However, the appropriate point to peg this story is January 2002. This is why Sardar Akbar Bugti quickly publicised the name of a captain in the army and released as many confidential documents as possible to the media before any investigation had been conducted.
From India’s perspective, an insurgency in Balochistan is designed to frustrate Pakistan’s attempts to build a gas pipeline from Iran and threaten India’s maritime position through the construction of a commercial and strategic port in Gwadar. It is also designed to weaken Pakistan and detract her away from India’s policy of fully integrating Kashmir. Thirty years ago the Soviet Union was not in love with Afghanistan and by now everyone must have understood that. Russians leaders wanted a convenient corridor to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean; the idea was to first establish full control in Kabul and from there to raise the double-bogey of Pakhtunistan and greater Balochistan, and try to detach at least a part of Balochistan from Pakistan to either merge it as a new province of Afghanistan or to create a new country that should be under the firm control of Moscow.
The game that started in 2002 seems a continuity of the Russian aggression of 1980. What Pakistan is facing today in Balochistan looks a combination of enemy hands. But when we say Americans or Russians, we have reasons to suspect that the Americans and Russians’ involvement in Balochistan is sanctioned, at least in part, by the Pentagon (if not White House and Kremlin. It is most likely the Pentagon with a good lot of support from the Kremlin. One should keep in mind that reviving such an organised insurgency is a tricky task and it needs active support from a number of players. Pentagon and Kremlin would not be able to do much without some help from Raw that has hundreds of active contacts in Balochistan.
If we look at the Americans’ interest in this region Washington has two long-term policy objectives in Balochistan; first, create a safe and reliable route to take all the energy resources of Central Asia to the US; and second, to contain China. The Americans will never allow China to enter into more development projects in Balochistan than it already has. By developing the ports and roads in Balochistan, China is ultimately helping itself by creating a convenient conduit for commerce that would connect China with Central Asia, South Asia, and Balochistan ports. Actually, the elements for the start of insurgency in Balochistan had been put in place already and the planners were waiting for a convenient catalyst to set things in motion. The gang rape of January 2, around which this sticky situation has been built, was just the missing ingredients the planners needed.
Pakistan and India continue to mend fences, as Iran, Pakistan, and India try to pool efforts to put a shared gas pipeline. Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan join hands to lay a natural gas pipeline of great economic and strategic importance. The US continues to laud the role of Pakistan as a front line nation in the war against terrorism as Chinese contractor forge ahead with construction work in Gwadar port and on Balochistan highways. The Pakistan government makes efforts to bring Balochistan under the rule of law and eliminate safe havens of terrorists and drug barons. The whole region tries to develop new long-term models to curb terrorism and bring prosperity to the far-flung areas. Balochistan offers the shortest distance between the Indian Ocean and Central Asia, that is to say, the shortest distance outside of the Gulf.
The moment the conditions are ripe, Americans would like to take all the oil and gas of Central Asia to Gwadar or Pasni and from there to the US. There is a deadly great game going on in the barren and hostile hills of Balochistan. Although Pasadaran of Iran are monitoring Zahidan-Taftan road, there is no regular check post of Pasadaran on the road between Khash and Jalq, making it easy for all kinds of elements to cross here and there. It is learnt that a small Indian town Kishangarh is located barely 5 kilometres from the Pakistan border where the province of Punjab and Sindh meet. There is a supply depot and training centre that maintains contacts with militants training camps in Pakistan, including Balochistan. There is also a logistic support depot near Shahgarh, about 90 km from Kishangarh, which serves as a launching pad for Indian supplies and experts since January 2002 when Balochistan became the hub of a new wave of foreign activities.
Actually, the landscape of Balochistan is such that it offers scores of safe heavens, inaccessible to outsiders. Only two roads connect Balochistan with the rest of the country. A senior London-based Pakistani journalist and editor of London Post, Dr. Shahid Qureshi, writes in the weekly Cuttingedge of December 3, 2006, “‘I asked Senator Sanaullah Baluch and Mehran Baluch on June 27 2006, you would not get anything out of it like Chalibi in Iraq.
There is a coastal connection that provides free access for elements in Dubai and Oman to connect with militants operating in Balochistan. This is loosely defined route but there are three main landing points in Balochistan. Eastern lip of Gwadar Bay that lies in the Iranian territory affords easy crossover to Pakistan through unguarded land border — the open space between Borma and Khor Kalmat and eastern most shoulder of Gwadar East Bay. It should be the first priority of the law-enforcing authorities to cut down the sources and channels of the supply of arms and cash to insurgents. Iran has incurred great expenses to develop Chah Bahar, the port that supposes to be the Iranian answer to Pakistani ports of Gwadar and Pasni. Iran has also done a lot of work to create excellent road link between Herat and Chah Bahar with the help of India. All this would go to waste if Pakistani route comes on line because it is shorter and offers fast commuting parkways between Central Asia and the Indian Ocean.
One should not ignore that India is preparing to use Afghanistan as its main artery system to connect with Central Asia and it would not allow Pakistan to share this sphere if it can. India has its own perceived or real objectives. For instance, India would go to great lengths to prevent Pakistan from developing a direct trade and transportation route with Central Asia because it would undermine the North-south corridor that goes through Iran. Also, while the acute shortage of energy may have compelled India to extend limited cooperation with Pakistan, the preferable project from the Indian point of view still remains Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.
Britain and the Indian Congress have historically maintained deep ties with the tribals in the Northern Areas and Baloch Sardars. Britain also influences the Balochistan tribals through the army of the Gulf state of Oman, which is under the command of the British Army and feeds heavily upon Balochi recruitments. It is high time to move on and see things objectively and clearly. Pakistan is being drawn into a political and military trap in Balochistan. Obviously, there are international players behind the attempts to aggravate the situation in Balochistan by capitalising on Pakistan’s internal ruptures in South Waziristan.
The writer is a freelance columnist
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